An analysis of the rumors surrounding Blizzard’s next game

Over the past two-and-a-half years ? since the release of WoW ? we?ve heard more rumor and speculation about Blizzard?s next title than anyone can possibly recall. We?ve even contributed to it ourselves, asking game designers, various Blizz dudes, and our fellow MMO pundits for their input. Blizzard itself, however, has remained completely silent on the issue. Heck, they wouldn?t tell us jack.

In the past two-and-a-half weeks, however, that has begun to change. It all started when Blizzard let it be known that they would be announcing their next game on May 19th, at the Blizzard Worldwide Invitational (BWI). Interestingly, it looks like we?re going to be there in Seoul to hear the announcement first hand!

Of course, speculation went hog wild. Gaming pundits voiced their often conflicting opinions. MMO geeks salivated like Pavlov?s dog. Forums erupted with wild guesses. It?s been nuts. Of course, the various outbursts were suitably out-bursty.

?It?s Diablo III. That?s been in the works for a year.?
?Starcraft II. It?ll be uber!?
?It?s the next WoW expansion. I can?t wait!?
?It?s a Diablo MMO! Finally, the wait is over!?
?I heard from my brother?s aunt-in-law that it?s a Starcraft MMO.?
?They?re finally releasing Starcraft: Ghost!?
?A WoW port for the 360, PS3, and the Wii is almost finished.?

Now normally, we here at WanderingGoblin.com would be the very first to spread unfounded rumors like these all over the place. Just like your weird aunt Helen, we?d be laying the gossip down nice and thick. This would be doubly true if, somehow, we could make fun of the whole thing in the process.

But crap, everyone else beat us to it.

So we were left with an unsavory alternative: do some research. Analyze all this speculation, and try to sort out the all the juicy facts from the simple gossip. You know, put in some actual work.

*Sigh*. Ok, here goes.

In our first segment, we’ve evaluated each of the biggest, juiciest of these most recent rumors. We also assigned a somewhat snarky letter grade based on each rumor’s credibility. In our second segment, we bust out a very short list of known facts — and we offer a few insights into their natural fallout. In the third segment, we try to put together what it all means, and we make our best judgment call as to what Blizzard’s game is likely to be. Although we’re not claiming that we’re in the know, nor are we claiming that our psychic powers have given us the answer, we’re confident that this analysis is far more thorough than the pure speculation you’re seeing elsewhere.

One: The CVG Announcement

Rumor: Pretty much everyone went berserk when the CVG website announced on May 5th that they had an inside source at Blizzard itself, and that the upcoming announcement is a Starcraft MMO. Here?s the juiciest bit for your reading pleasure:

Well placed US sources have revealed to us that the StarCraft MMO will be unveiled at an upcoming Blizzard event on May 19 in South Korea – the epicentre of the sci-fi RTS series’ rabid fandom.

You can read the entire announcement, which is short and brief, here

Analysis: If you read CVG?s announcement carefully, they simply cite ?Well placed US sources?. The piece implies that the source is inside Blizzard, but they don?t actually say that. CVG?s article also states things in such a matter-of-fact manner that it comes across as factual, lending it additional, perhaps undeserved, credibility.

Yes, there are Lego Star Wars games. But there will never be a Lego StarCraft game, no matter how much you wish for it. Ever.

There are a couple of problem?s with CVG?s announcement as well. First of all, it?s got more than its share of spelling and grammatical errors (instalment instead of installment, later instead of latter, etc). Second, the author displays a lack of WoW knowledge (six million subscribers? It?s ?arguably the biggest game around??), but he?s the one guy that?s got an inside source that gives him facts no one else has? Third, CVG?s coverage of this announcement is a grand total of six sentences long. Fourth, it?s treated on the CVG site like, well, it?s just another piece of gaming news. Not a particularly big deal.

Does any of this strike anyone as odd? Wouldn?t the editorial staff of a gaming news site normally turn this kind of thing into a full-blown article, actually edit it, or at least run it through the spelling checker? This kind of thing leads to a lot of site visitors, which means advertising dollars. Wouldn?t they milk this kind of announcement for all it?s worth?

And yet, they don?t really do that. It?s enough to make you think that maybe, just maybe their confidence in this story isn?t all that high.

Grade: We?ll give this one a C. They make bold claims and state their info as facts, but the very manner in which they handled this announcement left us pretty suspicious.

Two: The Timing of the Announcement Means The Game is an RTS, Not an MMO

Rumor: The Blizzard Worldwide Invitation (WWI) is held in Seoul, South Korea, the weekend of May 19th. The WWI is a tournament that focuses on real-time strategy gaming. Prizes are awarded. Victorious players become celebrities.

Why, you may ask, is that tournament held in Seoul? On second thought, why is it held in Seoul every year? Because the South Koreans, thanks largely to the bang phenomenon, are plum loco for Blizzard RTS titles. Guess which one?s most popular? Starcraft.

We can already hear some you Starcraft fanboys, upon seeing this screenshot, mumbling “Zerg ‘em! Zerg ‘em now!” under your breath.

Analysis: All this, of course, lends itself to one very logical conclusion: the game to be announced is, in fact, a new Starcraft RTS. If it is Starcraft II, Seoul is the best, most natural place to announce such a thing. They?d go berserk, foaming at the mouth, uncontrollably crazy. Of course, others have speculated on the timing and location of this announcement and come to the same conclusion.

Grade: C-. It?s logical, sure. While it?s true that South Koreans will go gonzo over another Starcraft RTS, they?ll also go gonzo for any Starcraft title. Thus the announcement could also logically be for a Starcraft port to next gen consoles, or it could be a re-invigorated Starcraft: Ghost. People also seem to be forgetting that the South Koreans are as rabid, if not more so, than Americans for MMOs, so announcing an MMO at WWI is also reasonable.

Three: Since Blizzard is Hiring MMO Devs, Their Next Game Will be an MMO

Rumor: Blizzard recently advertised for a senior MMO developer, and this got some rumor-mongers buzzing. Brent at VirginWorlds, however, took a different tack and did a nice bit of insightful analysis of the whole matter. His conclusion was that Blizzard would indeed be announcing a new MMO on May 19th. He speculated that it would be based on a new Blizzard intellectual property (IP).

Analysis: The VirginWorld?s piece differs from the CVG piece in that he cites his sources and gives his reasoning. He?s got facts on his side, the biggest of which is the fact that Blizzard is actively hiring new employees for an next-gen MMO. Oh, and unlike the CVG people, Brent knows how to use a spell checker.

Grade: An A-. Brent himself admits he?s speculating, but he does so based on verifiable data. We agree that Blizzard?s recent job advertisements mean an MMO is in the works, but disagree that it?ll be a new game franchise. Based on their track record, we think Blizz will produce a game based on one of their well-established IPs.

Four: World of Warcraft is So Lucrative, Blizzard Has to Make Another MMO

Rumor: WoW is the most lucrative game Blizzard has ever made. (According to our highly informal calculations, we believe it to be the most lucrative game anyone has ever made). According to both internal and external financial figures, Vivendi?s (parent company of Blizzard Entertainment) profits are way up. Vivendi has repeatedly touted WoW as their biggest performer. In fact, we couldn?t find an announcement in which subsidiary Blizzard wasn?t mentioned, and the success of WoW given top billing as to why Vivendi?s profits continue to increase.

Analysis: A bit of perspective is, perhaps, helpful here. This article described the revenues of Vivendi?s games division at a billion dollars for 2006, with WoW accounting for the overwhelming majority of that amount. In 2007 the WoW expansion was released, and numbers of subscriptions continue to rise. Current subscriptions are, as of this writing, at 8.5 million. In a nutshell, WoW revenues for 2007 will easily top those of 2006 by quite a bit. Hell, the game practically lays golden eggs.

Grade: B. Think, for a moment, about what Vivendi wants Blizzard to do. Make another RTS and sell 10 million copies at $39.99 each? Perhaps. That?s nearly 400 million dollars, which is a nice sum. Or?

Make another MMO, sell 10 million copies at $39.99 each, then an expansion at $39.99 each, while raking in $15 a month from each of those same 10 million people. That?s $80 for the game + expansion software itself, and another $180 a year in subscription fees. In two years time, that?s 4.4 billion dollars. Billion. With a ?B?.

You?d think, based on the above, that another MMO is a sure thing. But remember, Blizzard is the most stubborn game development company in history. They simply won?t be pressured to do anything they don?t want to do (Starcraft: Ghost was finished, and they outright cancelled it), and they won?t release anything even one minute before they are good and ready to do so. There is always a chance they?re working on some other non-MMO project, and they won?t be pressured, even by Vivendi, to do otherwise.

Five: Since All Blizz Franchises Were Slated to be MMOs Anyway, The New Game Will Be An MMO.

Rumor: This article, like many others, took a look at documents that Vivendi-Blizzard filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These documents were leaked to the public last summer. The conclusion? All Blizz IPs would be made into future MMOs. Blizzard?s announcing of a new game in May resurrected these speculations and breathed new life into these old rumors.

Analysis: There was a lot ? and I mean a LOT ? of speculation regarding the SEC documentation. We looked at it ourselves, and our conclusion is that MMOs are possible, but by no means the only possible next iteration of Blizzard?s IPs. The interpretation that all Blizzard IPs would be made into MMOs is quite a stretch. You can read it all for yourself here (slide 19 may be the source of this speculation) and draw your own conclusions.

Grade: F. Unless We’re reading the SEC documents incorrectly, neither Blizz nor Vivendi ever made the claim that their IPs would now all become MMOs.

Six: Blizzard?s Next Title Will Be an MMO or Action RPG Based On Their Diablo Franchise

Rumor: We mention this one because it keeps turning up, mostly in comments, forums, and message boards. We should probably refer to this as the ?grass roots? rumor. I?ve yet to see any actual facts to back this idea up, but some folks are of the opinion that an MMO or action RPG based on Diablo is in the works. They seem to be of the opinion that it?s somehow Diablo?s turn.

Here’s a clue: If you’ve already made up box cover art for a game that doesn’t exist yet, you’re a fanboy.

Apart from their primary IPs, Blizz could go and make an MMO based on game, or some other early, obscure title. And I?m just as likely to make-out with Angelina Jolie while we?re over in Seoul.

Grade:  D.  Since Blizzard has three main franchises upon which it bases its games, we figure this particular rumor has at least a 33% chance of being at least partially true.

Now that we?ve dealt with the rumors, lets review the few actual facts we have available to us, as well as the logical fallout from those facts. Our attempts to do just that when writing this article proved to be an interesting exercise. When we laid out the known facts on paper, we found that most of them ? and many of the strongest ones ? pointed to a single conclusion.

One: CVG might still be right. Sure, it?s possible that they might be venting all this out their blowhole, making it all up or citing a weak source. However, a sloppy, half-assed article doesn?t mean necessarily mean it?s an inaccurate article. They might really have a source that knows what he/she is talking about.

Two: VirginWorlds is right. Blizzard is certainly hiring lead programmers for a next-gen MMO.

However, it?s common knowledge that Blizzard has multiple projects in various stages of development at any given time. The fact that they are hiring MMO developers doesn?t mean that that project is the one they?re announcing in Seoul in May. Those developers are possibly working on an unannounced project.

So this fact, in and of itself, doesn?t prove anything. It is, however, highly interesting.

Three: WoW is profitable beyond anyone?s wildest dreams. Blizzard?s other titles have made nice chunks of change, but Blizzard?s MMO practically prints cash money.

Consider: if you were an executive at Vivendi, you?d probably be pressuring the people at Blizzard to produce another MMO right freaking now. They couldn?t make one of these cash-cows fast enough to satisfy you, could they?

On that note, if some Blizz exec told you ?Hey, we?re planning on making a new RTS or first person shooter. It?ll be great!? What would be the first question you?d ask? Perhaps something along the lines of, ?Yeah, yeah, that?s fabulous. But when?s your next MMO coming out??

Four: All Blizz franchises are not slated to be MMOs. We can?t find a single thing in any of the Powerpoint slides submitted to the SEC that bears out that conclusion. There is no other evidence that we are aware of that indicates that Blizzard is now an MMO-only company.

However, if they are making an MMO, what Blizzard franchise most ably lends itself to that style of game? Diablo is unlikely, as the market is chock-full of fantasy-based MMOs. WoW II is unlikely for the same reason, plus the fact that WoW I is in its prime. So that leaves, lemme think a minute?hmmmm.

Five: The timing of the announcement does not mandate that it?s a Starcraft game, nor must it be an RTS. Gambunny has some interesting insights in this regard.  While they lament the recent dearth of Blizzard RTS games, they acknowledge the upcoming game could, in fact, be anything.  

Having said that, the time and place of this announcement is certainly curious.

If you want to announce a title that already appeals to the Korean market, and if you wanted to increase your foothold in Asia, what game would you announce at an event like WWI? Obviously, announcing a Starcraft title at WWI is a no-brainer. South Koreans love Starcraft, and any Starcraft title would receive a positive response. Announcing a different title, less popular in Korea, just doesn?t seem quite so natural.

Further, Blizzcon is a mere three months away. If you wanted to announce a game that had a huge foothold in the U.S. ? say, a Diablo game ? wouldn?t Blizzcon be a better place for such an announcement?

Although the Starcraft RTS is popular in South Korea, MMOs are also hugely popular there. Everyone seems to be forgetting this fact. Half the MMOs you have ever heard of are made in South Korea. Announcing a new MMO in South Korea is like shouting ?I?ve got crack!? in downtown Los Angeles. You are destined to get an enthusiastic response.

Of course, we are dealing with probabilities here. We considered everything, even the rumors we had doubts about. We tossed around every possibility. We talked it over, hashed it out, speculated wildly, returned to known facts, and ultimately concluded that two things are most probable:

The first ? based primarily on an analysis of the profitability of any potential Blizzard game, as well as Blizzard?s recent hiring practices ? is that their next game is likely to be an MMO. It is simply the path to the greatest popularity and profit.

The second ? based on an analysis of the IPs available to Blizzard, as well as the timing of the announcement ? leads us to believe that a Starcraft game is most likely to be announced at WWI.

So the bottom line is this: the Wandering Goblin official prediction is that Blizzard?s announcement on this coming May 19th is a Starcraft MMO.

We wore ourselves out coming to that conclusion, but we wanted to make one more prediction. This one is waaaaay out on a limb; it?s based only on a growing trend we?ve seen in the MMO industry. We?ve noticed many new MMOs like to have a cool abbreviation for their longer, official names. You know, World of Warcraft = WoW, and Warhammer: Age of Reckoning = WAR. In light of this trend, we are predicting that the Starcraft MMO will do the same. Our best (and wildest!) guess is that it will be known as SCAR. You know, StarCraft: Aftermath Revolt or maybe Starcraft: Conflict At Rigel. Both can be torqued, with a bit of imagination, into SCAR.

Having said that, it should be obvious that we here at WanderingGoblin.com don?t actually know what Blizzard?s announcement will be. We can?t be sure if a Diablo sequel, a console port, or a Starcraft MMO or RTS is in the works. Just like everyone else, we don?t have some insider whispering in our ear. We can only say that a breakdown of the above facts lends itself to this very interesting, if admittedly somewhat uncertain, conclusion.

Copyright 2007 by WanderingGoblin.com. All rights reserved.